SINO-TANZANIA RELATIONSHIP NOT JUST POLITICAL

·        Beijing emerges Dar’s major foreign direct investor

By Galila Wabanh'u

Dar es Salaam

CHINA’S total direct investment in Tanzania soared from $700 million in 2011 to $7 billion in 2018, turning the world’s second biggest economy into the biggest foreign investor in the east African country.

Scholarly and international development data show that, this investment is focused on railways, ports, buildings, road construction, gas pipelines and wind power farms, which has not only boosted economic growth of Tanzania but has also created more than 150,000 direct jobs.

Open Data for International Development (AidData) also shows that in 2012 Beijing emerged as Tanzania’s single biggest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Dar es Salaam’s trade.

In 2013, China and Tanzania took on up to 19 projects worth billions of dollars.

Some of these projects have been financially backed by the Chinese state-owned Exim Bank to the tune of $10 billion.

Between 2001 and 2011, mineral-rich Tanzania received funding worth $ 4.6 billion from the Chinese.

China’s state-owned Sichuan Hongda Group got into a $3bn partnership with Tanzania’s National Development Corporation to develop a major iron-coal mine.

Beijing companies also own a bigger share of Tanzania’s civil engineering industry. Private Chinese companies have also stepped up investments into Tanzania.

On Tuesday, April 23, 2019, Dr Hassan Abbasi, the Director of Tanzania Information Services and Chief Government Spokesperson, was quoted by China’s Xinhua Information Agency as saying the future of Tanzania-China relations is bright and unshakeable.

"We really cherish the cooperation between Tanzania and China. It is built on strong and unshakeable foundations. The two countries work hand in hand to promote each other.

"Tanzania will continue to learn from China in areas such as hard work, industrialization and the anti-corruption drive," said the chief government spokesperson.

Abbasi added what President John Magufuli is currently doing in undertaking transformation in infrastructure, social services, health and industrialization is an approach inspired by our Chinese friends.

He said Tanzania has always opened wide its doors to Chinese investors who plan to come to the east African nation to enjoy the vast investment opportunities in various fields, including mining, manufacturing, tourism and media.

However, he said it was important that citizens of both countries cherished the long standing brotherhood by complying to all relevant laws and social ethics when they visited or lived in either countries.

According to the Chinese embassy in Tanzania, bilateral trade volume between the two countries reached 3.976 billion U.S. dollars in 2018, registering a year-on-year growth of 15 percent, with China being the largest trading partner of Tanzania for three consecutive years.

Up to now, China's total investment in Tanzania has exceeded 7 billion dollars, which made China the largest foreign investor in the east African nation.

Currently, more than 200 Chinese companies were making investments and operating in Tanzania where China is the largest project contractor in the country with investments ranging from infrastructure, mining, agriculture to manufacturing, hotels, real estate to banks.

Last week, Tanzania hosted the China-Tanzania high-level dialogue on investment and business environment aimed at providing a platform for the Tanzanian government to facilitate investment, project contracting and trade business operations of Chinese companies in the country.

China-Tanzania relationship is alive, well and indeed blossoming harmoniously. At no time in the history of these two nations has the historically and traditionally strong relationship failed to thrive.

 Wabanh’u says, China is Tanzania's largest trading partner (with trade volume of $4.6 billion by 2018 according to Chinese Embassy) and hitherto her largest investor (Chinese FDI standing at US$10bn in 2018). 

As the bilateral trade and investment statistics indicate, this in no way shows cooling of relations between the two historically strong friends nor the snubbing of either of the President by his counterpart. The relationship between the Presidents of both nations is great to say the least.

Under the "comprehensive deepening of reforms in social governance" was initiated by President Xi Jingpin during the CCP and State Council deliberations in November 2013, the State in China deliberates policy between State actors and Non-actors such as Societal organizations and business, who in turn inform and influence policy, including trade and investment. If there was a cooling of relationships and a snubbing of the President of the United Republic of Tanzania, Dr. John Pombe Magufuli by his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping the positively strong trade and increased investment statistics would not be the case, as partners in policy and investment rarely, if at all, move in opposing directions. That would be illogically.

In terms of building and maintaining all weather friendships, whether as individuals, communities or state actors, it takes a lot of sacrifice and commitment over time and space.  It simply cannot be wished away or wished into existence.

The aforementioned describes the relationship between China and Tanzania that has stood the test of time and that continues to thrive harmoniously to this day. Such relationships conjur various feelings from well meaning people as well as from detractors, spanning from? feelings of joy to hatred and envy. The Tanzania China relationship is one such relationship that has lasted for fifty five years. Relationships cannot be looked at in a simplistic and an isolated manner.  They are complex processes that need to be looked at more holistically over time.

The study of relationships need more than looking at an episode of one year span to reach conclusions. It is more complex and meaningful, needing detailed collection of data and information over time and space. It also needs an understanding of cultures and cultural norms all fitted in the context of international diplomacy and geopolitics.

As the bilateral trade and investment Statistics indicate, this relationship is more than just political, it is social, economical and encompasses all sectors of our two countries.  It is traditional and like in other relationship, it is dynamic and work in progress. The trade and investment statistics in no way suggest a cooling of relationships or the snubbing of President Dr.  John Pombe Magufuli by his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping.

On November 12, 2013 the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the "Decision to make Comprehensive Deepening of Reform", which was the first major policy statement of President Xi Jingpin's new Administration. The initiative called for greater liberalization of the economy and greater governance role of the market, private sectors and non-state actors, including social organizations, among others.

This bold initiative also set out to strengthen discourse between business, social organizations and the Chinese State in matters impacting broad policy making and policies touching lives of the Chinese.  The notion is known as "shehui zhilu" denoting the recognition of social actor's role in governance, alongside government and business. 

In this context, it is seemingly unlikely that trade and investment between China and Tanzania would grow and flourish, if the Government of The People's Republic of China was snubbing the Government of The United Republic of Tanzania. Decisions of the Government of China move in a complementary direction with its trade and investments partners and friends, Tanzania among them. If there was a cooling of relationships or the snubbing of President Magufuli, the growth in bilateral trade and in investment would have mirrored the situation.

On 20th April, 2019 Ansbert Ngurumo posted an article in his Blog SAUTI KUBWA. The name of the article is "China snubs Magufuli's Tanzania in Sino-African expo", where he takes the liberty to painstakingly try to conjur an atmosphere of souring of relationships between China and Tanzania, but also between President Magufuli and other international leaders. 

Ngurumo's article struggles in focusing on a Central theme, taking the reader through a journey of China Tanzania relationship, to President Magufuli relationships with the Western countries and to economic uncertainties, in doing so losing the reader in a maze of half baked stories lacking facts and figures.

Ngurumo jumps from one area to the next without exhausting what he intends to post.  For example, he states that "President Magufuli "diplomatic relations have been worsening in the past one year" but fails to show how? He seems to forget that a President's effectiveness and success in diplomacy is not shown by how many visits he receives from counterparts in a year.  There are other forms of engagement such as projects and other official communications.

Since assuming office in 2015, President Magufuli has received high level visits from various counterpart and dignitaries such as President of Vietnam, Truong Tan Sang (March 2016); Deputy Director General of the IMF, Mr. Tao Zhang (March 2016); Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi (July 2016); King of Morroco, His Highness Mohamed VI (October 2016); Vice-President of Cuba, Salvador Valdes Mesa (October 2016); President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (January 2017); Minister of Foreign Affairs of People's Republic of China, Wang Yi (January 2017); President of The World Bank, Jim Yong Kim (March 2017); Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Borge Brende ( June 2017); President of China Exim Bank, Liu Liang (July 2017); President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (August 2017); President of African Development Bank, Dr.  Akinumwi A.  Adenesia (April 2018); Vice-President of The World Bank, Sandi Okoro (June 2018) and Prime Minister of South Korea, Lee Nak-Nak Yon (July 2018).

At the same time, the Presidents of our neighboring countries, Paul Kagame of Rwanda; Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, the President of Burundi, the President of DRC, and the president of Zimbabwe among others have visited President Magufuli on numerous occasions.

On his part, President Magufuli has visited Presidents Kagame of Rwanda (April 2016); Museveni of Uganda (May 2016); Kenyatta of Kenya (October 2016) and the African Union located in Ethiopia in January 2017.

The picture being painted by Ngurumo about President Magufuli being isolated by his counterparts in the last year is therefore unfortunate and untrue.  Presidential counterparts do not visit one another every year, as there are numerous channels of communications and their visits depend on bilateral communications and schedules. 

If by any stretch of the imagination or statistics, the above shown statistics on visits indicate that Tanzania's relationships with the People's Republic of China and with other countries and international organizations is alive and well. Any suggestion of isolation is far and untrue.

In his article, Ngurumo mentions past Tanzanian Presidents, Julius Kambarage Nyerere (1961-1985); Ali Hassan Mwinyi (1985-1995); Benjamin William Mkapa (1995-2005) and Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete (2005-2015) having all visited China.

His article would have been of more utility to the curious reader had he gone further and mentioned the number of times and frequencies each past president of Tanzania visited China and during which time frame in their administration or leadership as president.

Similarly, because relationships are holistic and complex, he should have even gone further to mention the Chinese leaders who visited Tanzania during the same period. 

In writing serious Think Pieces, it is advisable to look at relationships in a more wider, holistic and objective manner since relationships involve more than one party. Whilst Ansbert mentioned the years that the Tanzanian past Presidents were in office, it would probably be of currency for him to note that President Magufuli is only onto his fourth year of his first term in office and probably deserves more time before he is subjected to comparisons with his predecessors on how many times he has been invited to visit China and how many times he made State visits to China or to any other country for that matter.

Each administration faces different challenges when assuming office, both domestically and internationally. It draws its priorities and strategies based on urgency of the challenges and its capacity to deal with those challenges. It does so with the intention to balance priorities and friendships. This means that sitting Presidents, comparatively speaking, do not and will not travel abroad in a linear manner with uniform schedules.

Geopoliticals demands more dynamic and logical thinking. Not all past Presidents of China, USA, European or African countries maintain same traveling schedules with their predecessors. International relations and geopolitics is a dynamic landscape needing proper planning, capacity and finance all put together.

Whilst writing about a supposed "snubbing of a country and its President", writing ethics demands that one must cite credible sources of the information than can hitherto be accessed or asked on authenticity of the information or claim put forward by a writer.  On this account, Ngurumo fails the reader yet again. Credible sources on this account would by implication, mean credible sources of authoritative information from both China and Tanzania. 

This is especially important because the article discusses relationships. Quoting unnamed sources from one side of the relationship fails the reliability test. Hurriedly concluding on a position put forward by the author of the article is not convincing to an avid and serious reader. 

At this juncture, it is important to note that relationships between two or more countries lend themselves to bilateral agreements, official communications and understanding. This space is best left for State actors to play in the international stage.  There is more in the complex world of diplomacy that meets the eye. 

More will unfold as time progresses. There is a plethora of reasons why a particular President is not invited to a Conference or a meeting where his or her counterparts are invited.  Whilst this may seem as a negative sign on a relationship, it may actually be positive. Time will tell and the two actors only privy to this information and forward plans are the two states, The Governments of The People's Republic of China and of The United Republic of Tanzania.

Perhaps, it is noteworthy to note that since President Magufuli assumed office in late 2015, high level contacts between leaders of both China and Tanzania have taken place. Our Prime Minister, Hon. Kassim Majaliwa visited China to attend the all important FOCAC and China Africa Meeting in 2018 also our Foreign Minister on many occasions has visited China along with the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation.  On the other side the Secretary General of the Ruling Party CCM and his senior delegation visited China in 2018 as have many Ministers in charge of other Ministries. Military visits and exchanges from both sides visit one another frequently and have a special supportive relationship.

It would be very wrong to assume that all these visits to China by senior Tanzanian leaders in the ruling party, government and in the military happened at their own behest and without the support, knowledge and approval of the President of The United Republic, Chairman of the ruling Party and Commander In- Chief of the armed forces. President Magufuli sent those visiting China for meetings and approved their travels in support if this great friendship that both Governments maintain.

Ngurumo's article would have made better and more sober reading had it been properly researched, complemented by statistics and data.  Unfortunately this was not the case and his article was simple and read like a novel.  No research and no data unfortunately means no authority to write a serious article. This is better left to Sinotologists who understand relationships between China and the World in general and China and Africa in particular.

In discussing the use of data in serious discourses, perhaps the curious reader of Ngurumo's article would wish to know when President Magufuli hosted President Xi Jingpin in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania as posited in his article of 20th April, 2019?

Further, when Ngurumo wrote of "the country whose economic and diplomatic future is uncertain", the writer may wish to inform the readers on which instrument he used to collect, measure and test his data?  What is the reliability of the instrument?  On this too, the reader would appreciate an answer as so many questions abound and few answers offered.

Galila Wabanh'u is the deputy secretary general CCM Youth League Tanzania Mainland and member of CCM national executive committee.