BATTLE OF THE BILLIONAIRES IN RACE FOR NYERI

Nyeri Governor Nderitu Gachagua at a past function in 2016. Nyeri County governor’s race has attracted wealthy and sharp brains as the 2017 General Election nears. PHOTO | JOSEPH KANYI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

By GUCHU NDUNG'U 

The Nyeri governor’s race has attracted billionaires and some of the sharpest brains in the country as they all seek to dethrone incumbent Nderitu Gachagua.
The field of contestants have been livened up by the entry of flamboyant Kirinyaga contractor’s owner and fierce critic of Mr Gachagua, Mr Ephraim Maina.

Others who have thrown their hat into the ring include economist Wahome Gakuru, who lost to the incumbent in the last elections.
Others are industrialist Githinji Kinyanjui popularly known as Cocorico, former Kenya Dairy Board CEO Machira Gichohi, hotelier Patrick Munene Kairu.
National Oil Chairman Daniel Wamahiu and Athi Water Services chairman Wachira Keen have also been touted as candidates but neither have denied or confirmed it. 
Nyeri politics is fractious by nature and this time is no different.
Four main factors may thus influence who will become the governor.
VOTE-RICH AREAS
The first is the direction of voters from Mathira and Kieni constituencies, farmers’ issues, unity or lack of it of anti-Gachagua forces, money and to a lesser degree, choice of party. 
According to the latest IEBC statistics, Kieni has the highest number of voters registered in the county at around 90,000 and this number is expected to clock over 100,000 by the time elections are held. It is followed closely by Mathira with 87,033 voters by March this year. Nyeri Town (70,653), Othaya (51,210) Mukurwe-ini (46,291) and Tetu (43,400) are the others.
“Any one candidate who wins Kieni and Mathira with a landslide and gets pockets of votes from other constituencies will be declared governor by midnight,” said Wainaina Njoroge, a political analyst who is also vying for the Kieni parliamentary seat.
Most of the voters from Kieni East are originally from Mathira and thus share the same interests, making Mathira a key determinant of the race.
In fact, during the last elections, Gachagua, who vied on a Grand National Union ticket in an area where The National Alliance was strong, won after bagging most of the Mathira vote.
He scored 137,469 votes and his closest competitor, Dr Gakuru of TNA, managed 126,776. Dr Gakuru is from Nyeri town constituency.
“It may be different this time. Three of the major candidates are from Mathira and if they do not step down after Jubilee nominations, the Mathira votes will be split and Tetu, Mukurwei-ini and Othaya may pick the winner,” adds Jubilee Party official Wambugu Nyamu.
The three are Mr Maina, Mr Gachagua and Mr Kinyanjui. Mr Kairu and Mr Gichohi are from Kieni.
Governor Gachagua is not taking any chances with the vote and has employed a two-pronged strategy; initiating projects in the constituency using county budget and partnering with his brother Rigathi to solidify his vote.
Rigathi is a wealthy trader popular with women and youths in the constituency for funding projects. It is not clear if Rigathi will vie for MP of the constituency.
Mr Kinyanjui has also distributed water tanks in both Kieni and Mathira and is initiating other projects.

“Having been an MP in the area, Mr Maina is also well known,” adds Mr Nyamu.  

A fight between Mr Maina and Mr Gachagua will rekindle their enmity which goes back many years when both were vying for the Mathira seat.

DEPUTY GOVERNOR'S CHOICE

The kind of running mate that each picks will be a factor to determine who occupies Nyeri’s governor’s mansion.

Most of Nyeri’s economy relies on coffee, tea, milk, trade and agriculture and the candidate who is also able to articulate his policies on the same will have a head-start.

“Agriculture will be the beginning and the end of a candidate,” adds Mr Njoroge who vied for the Kieni seat in 2013 but was the runners-up to current MP Kanini Kega.

Thus the success of the governor’s coffee reforms will be a key determinant on whether he is re-elected.

“The reforms have failed mostly because of poor leadership. We need to get Nyeri back to where it used to be,” said Mr Maina. But the governor differs.

“Due to the reforms, 45 per cent of our coffee is sold directly and farmers are now earning over Sh80 per kilo. Production of coffee is now up by 30 per cent. The figures speak better than rhetoric,” said Mr Gachagua.

With 389,246 voters, ability to marshal cash for campaigns will also be an issue. But none of the contestants is a poor man.

“But money may not be the only factor. You cannot just bribe your way to the hearts of over 300,000 voters. Nyeri voters will definitely demand cash, but they always vote for who they want. They always do,” said Mr Maina Mathenge, former political adviser to Mr Gachagua and a contestant for the Nyeri town parliamentary seat.

All the contestants, including Mr Gachagua, told Saturday Nation that they will seek the Jubilee party ticket as long as the nominations are fair.

But that may not be enough to guarantee them victory in Nyeri as it does in other central regions.

“In Nyeri, riding the wave of the president’s party contributes to only 30 per cent of the support. The rest is your personality. That is why Nyeri is the only county in central with a GNU governor, Ford Asili MCAs and other leaders,” adds Mr Nyamu.

Indeed, it will all boil down to the candidates, their personality and strategy. Analysts point out that the biggest contests may be among Governor Gachagua, Dr Wahome, Mr Maina, Mr Kinyanjui and Dr Mathenge.

But the incumbent is still the man to beat. Mr Gachagua has the name recognition and a Sh6.4 billion budget to implement for the year that he can use to dangle carrots to the electorate. He also has a record to show.

He has so far gravelled or repaired 900 kilometres of roads in addition to giving bursaries of close to Sh100 million to poor students.

SOURCE: NATION MEDIA